Kieran O'Leary, from the firm, pointed to the low turnout of 59.7% for skewing the data and affecting its model. He said there were anecdotal reports of a higher decline in turnout among young voters than among older voters. He added it was also possible the decline was more severe in urban areas than in rural areas.

Ireland has proved a partial exception to the anti-incumbent mood in elections around the world. Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, which have dominated Irish politics for a century, remain in the driving seat, though their combined share of the vote has declined to just over 40%.

Voters across Ireland cast their ballots in the country’s general election on 29 November. First preference vote shares indicated that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are set to continue their coalition as support for Sinn Féin declines.